​Lithium Battery Anode Materials Integrated Construction Of New Barriers

Domestic production capacity is supplied to the world, fully benefiting from the high demand for lithium batteries. Lithium battery anode materials have a long production process and high energy consumption. Chinese manufacturers have occupied 86% of the global anode due to their extremely advantageous energy and labor costs, as well as excellent manufacturing processes. The above market share directly benefits from the strong demand for lithium batteries worldwide. We predict that the global demand for lithium batteries will reach 3467GWh in 2026, corresponding to 4.33 million tons of negative electrode demand, and the 5-year CAGR of demand will be 43.85%.

The energy consumption policy has led to a shortage of graphitization production capacity. It is expected that the tight balance will be maintained until the end of 2023. Graphitization is a key process in the production of artificial negative electrodes, and its processing fee accounts for more than 40% of the cost of negative electrodes. The power consumption of graphitization is about 13,000 kWh/ton. In the second half of 21, due to the influence of the dual-control policy on energy consumption, a large number of graphitization production capacity cannot be started, and the supply is seriously insufficient, resulting in an 86% increase in domestic processing fees since the beginning of 21. We have counted the expansion plans of the top seven manufacturers in the anode industry, as well as more than 40 construction projects of other manufacturers. Will the tight balance be maintained until? The integrated layout of leading companies guarantees profit margins, and the industry concentration is expected to increase. Most of the first-tier companies in the negative electrode industry have deployed integrated production capacity including graphitization and carbonization processes in advance. Yezi also plans to build a large-scale integrated base construction project with an output of 8 billion energy, raising the industry threshold. According to our calculations, for production and sales at the current market price, leading manufacturers with a high self-sufficiency rate in graphitization are expected to maintain a gross profit margin of around 20%-30%, while small and medium-sized manufacturers that completely rely on outsourced processing have very little profit margins. , and may even suffer losses. With the clearing of small and medium production capacity, we believe that industry concentration is expected to increase.

The industrialization of new silicon-based anodes is accelerating, driving the growth in demand for carbon nanotubes. With the evolution of lithium battery chemical systems to higher energy density, silicon-based anodes, with their extremely high theoretical gram capacity of more than 4000mAh/g, are the current industrialization prospects. A clear next-generation new anode material.

In 2021, the domestic shipment of silicon-based anodes is 11,000 tons. At present, the planned production capacity of various manufacturers according to our statistics is more than 130,000 tons. It is expected that large-scale production will be achieved in the short to medium term. Due to the large volume deformation of charge and discharge, poor cycle performance, and poor electrical conductivity of silicon materials, the popularity of silicon-based anodes in the future will also bring about an increase in the demand for conductive agent materials represented by carbon nanotubes.